South Africa's beef, lamb and mutton sectors are operating under fundamentally altered conditions, as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) continues to reshape supply chains, constrain exports and push prices to levels not seen in years, according to the Absa AgriBusiness Agritrends Autumn 2026 report.
Beef Exports Bleed as FMD Spreads
South Africa lost its FMD-free without vaccination status after outbreaks spread beyond the country's traditional disease-control zones and affected multiple provinces.
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The consequences for exports have been severe.
According to Red Meat Industry Services (RMIS) data cited in the Absa Agritrends report, beef export volumes declined by 26.1% year on year in 2024. The report notes that South Africa's FMD-free without vaccination status was historically a strategic asset, underpinning access to markets that typically impose swift and far-reaching import bans when outbreaks occur in exporting countries.
China's response to South African FMD outbreaks in recent years illustrates this dynamic, with suspensions cutting off an important outlet for beef at a time when global prices were supportive on the back of tightening global supplies.
With repeated outbreaks over three years fundamentally altering the export landscape, the sector has collectively committed to transitioning towards an FMD-free with vaccination status, a significant strategic shift.
South Africa’s president, Cyrill Ramaphosa, declared FMD a national disaster, allowing the government to coordinate response measures and allocate additional resources to disease control. Progress on the vaccination front has been notable, from record imports of high-potency vaccines and diversified procurement to the restart of local vaccine production and regulatory reforms streamlining movement and slaughter.
Brazil Shows the Way Forward
The Absa Agritrends report points to Brazil as the most relevant learning case for South Africa's transition. Brazil was recognised as FMD-free without vaccination in 2025 by the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH). Its eradication path, built on mass vaccination, strict zoning, effective traceability systems and disciplined movement controls, demonstrates that vaccination is the foundation for restoring biosecurity, stabilising supply and eventually regaining export competitiveness.
Higher Beef Prices But Two Possible Paths
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) trajectory report, commissioned by RMIS and referenced in Absa Agritrends, outlines two broad price scenarios for beef over the coming years.
In the first, vaccination stabilises domestic supply but export recovery remains slow. As biosecurity restrictions gradually ease, more cattle enter the market and beef availability increases, keeping prices within a higher trading band while limiting further upside. Weaner calf prices remain elevated due to restricted animal movement under FMD protocols and fewer live cattle imports from neighbouring countries.
In the second scenario, vaccination supports a more credible recovery in export market access, with higher-value markets reopening for countries recognised as FMD-free with vaccination. Export volumes could recover and potentially exceed the historical average of approximately 5% of total production, providing additional support to beef carcass prices. The report notes that in both scenarios, prices are expected to remain higher than pre-FMD levels.
Absa AgriBusiness forecasts average Class A beef prices at R61.62/kg in 2026 and R63.78/kg in 2027, up from R58.80/kg in 2025. Class C is forecast at R49.75/kg in 2026 and R51.14/kg in 2027. Weaner calf prices are forecast at R35.47/kg in 2026 and R36.54/kg in 2027.
Sheep Prices Climb as Global Flocks Tighten
Lamb and mutton recorded some of the strongest year-on-year price increases across the entire livestock sector, according to the Absa Agritrends report. The recovery follows a sharp decline in 2023, when El Niño-related pressure on Oceania's producers triggered widespread flock liquidations.
Australia recorded exceptionally high supplies during this period, which pushed global reference prices downward and, in turn, weighed on South African prices. As liquidation slowed and signs of early rebuilding emerged in 2024 and 2025, local prices strengthened steadily. This was further supported by South Africa's structurally tight flock and an export mix dominated by carcasses and half-carcasses to the Middle East, which moderates price volatility compared to exporters focused on cuts.
On the domestic supply side, South African slaughter numbers increased 36% year on year through 2024 as producers managed cashflow and drought risk. Slaughter volumes then declined 4.6% in 2025, indicating a moderation that helped sustain the price recovery into late 2025 and early 2026. January 2026 slaughter data from RMIS, cited in the report, showed total slaughters declining to 183 669 head, below the five-year average of 192 653 and 16% lower year on year compared to January 2025.
Strait of Hormuz Adds New Risk
Looking ahead, the Absa Agritrends report expects supply from Australia and New Zealand to tighten further, as producers retain more breeding ewes to support flock rebuilding from 2025 lows. Against this backdrop, the report flags heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including temporary shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, as a logistics risk for lamb trade bound for the Middle East.
New Zealand's export experience illustrated the potential for routing delays and higher freight costs, with similar challenges relevant for other Southern Hemisphere suppliers. The duration and severity of shipping disruptions is described as a key uncertainty for the price outlook.
Absa AgriBusiness forecasts Class A lamb prices rising to R90.84/kg in 2026, R95.11/kg in 2027 and R98.53/kg in 2028, compared to R84.50/kg in 2025. Class C is forecast at R61.83/kg in 2026, rising to R65.59/kg by 2028.
