Namibia’s crop sector continues to face persistent import dependency but also shows clear potential for increased local production, according to Gilbert Mulonda, general manager of Agronomy and Horticulture Development at the Namibia Agronomic Board (NAB). He was speaking at the 2025 Agri Outlook Conference.


Mulonda noted that agriculture supports roughly 70% of Namibia’s population and generates both direct and indirect employment. Yet, he added, “Agriculture contributes less than 4% to the country’s GDP, with the crop sub-sector accounting for about 2%.”


Despite decades of interventions – including the Green Scheme Policy and dryland crop production programmes – Namibia still imports around 70% of its agronomy and horticulture products. “We are actually very far from solving that [importation] problem,” Mulonda said, emphasising that high input costs and drought continue to constrain local production.


The National Development Plan 6 (NDP6) sets ambitious targets for the crop sector. “We only want to import 20%, and local production must account for 80%,” Mulonda explained. The plan also aims to increase crop exports from N$1.9 billion to N$2.8 billion and raise the agro-processing contribution to GDP from 7.5% to 10% by 2030.





Planting season outlook


Looking ahead to the 2025/26 planting season, Mulonda cited SADC regional forecasts projecting “normal to above-normal rainfall, except for the eastern side, which is expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall.” He added that favourable rains offer farmers an opportunity to maximise production.


The grain sector – particularly white maize, wheat, and mahangu – remains vulnerable to drought and erratic rainfall. Historical data illustrates the scale of the challenge: in 2013, local grain production met 16% of domestic demand; in 2019, 10%; and in 2024 the lowest share was recorded at only 8%. “This basically tells you that if we want to achieve food security and food self-sufficiency, the number one risk we are facing as a country is drought,” Mulonda said.


For 2025, local grain production was projected to reach 27%, rising to 33% in 2026. White maize output was expected to meet 35% of domestic demand in 2025 and 44% in 2026. Wheat could increase from 2% in 2024 to 14% in 2025 and 16% in 2026. Mahangu, grown mainly under dryland conditions, is forecast to meet up to 83% of domestic demand by 2026.


Grain prices have steadily increased since 2017. White maize has risen from N$4 806 per tonne to a projected N$7 531 by 2026; wheat from N$5 178 to N$7 342; and mahangu from N$5 400 to N$7 000. These trends, Mulonda noted, are influenced by demand, supply, and the pricing formula adopted by the NAB.


Agro-processing presents further potential for growth. Currently, 57% of grain processing relies on local production, while imports account for 30% (N$1.8 billion) and exports total N$843 million.





Horticulture production


In the horticulture sector, vegetables meet 54% of domestic demand, but fruit production remains heavily import-dependent, with 97% of fruits consumed locally sourced from abroad. “That is quite a big opportunity,” Mulonda said, highlighting the potential for domestic expansion. Citrus, grapes, and blueberries were identified as priority crops for growth.


Exports of fresh fruits and vegetables have grown steadily from 2016 to 2024, largely driven by grape production, which accounts for 64% of horticultural exports. In 2025, exports are expected to rise by around 5%, reflecting new grape vines coming into production.


Processed horticultural products are still predominantly imported. “Imports account for about 93% of our processed horticulture products – about N$2.1 billion,” Mulonda said, while local production contributes just 7% (N$162 million).





Challenges and strategic interventions


Mulonda stressed that drought remains the primary threat to achieving food security. He highlighted the importance of irrigation schemes and proposed mechanisms to support farmers operating in drought-prone areas.


He also pointed to the NAB’s recent launch of the Crop Value Chain Development Strategy (CVCDS), which allocates N$250 million for implementation.


Concluding, Mulonda said, “2026 looks promising, and we must seize this opportunity to strengthen our agricultural production, build resilience against drought, and expand both primary production and agro-processing.”