Ellanie SmitWINDHOEK
Several parts of Namibia are expected to receive more than 300 millimetres of rainfall between January and March 2026, according to the latest climate bulletin from the Namibia Meteorological Service.The report indicates that above-normal rainfall is generally likely across the country during this period.
Normal rainfall is expected to extend from Kavango East southwards into the central interior, covering parts of the central-north and eastern regions. The northern half of the country is forecast to record totals exceeding 300 mm, while the rest of the interior is expected to receive less than 300 mm.
Large-scale climate drivers are influencing the outlook. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
La Niña is expected to persist through December, with a 68% chance of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions between January and March 2026.
The climate bulletin notes that this shift is likely to temper the extreme impacts often associated with strong La Niña events, allowing local and regional climate factors to play a greater role in shaping rainfall patterns.
Positive weather signs
Rainfall observations from November already show stark contrasts across the country.
The bulletin highlights a pronounced west-to-northeast rainfall gradient, with minimal precipitation in the west and significantly higher totals in the north-east.
Areas around Grootfontein, Gaikos and Katima Mulilo recorded the highest rainfall, ranging from 130 mm to 173 mm, indicating intense, localised storm activity. Grootfontein experienced its wettest November since 2015.
Central regions recorded moderate rainfall of between 30 mm and 80 mm, while southern areas generally received low rainfall ranging from 10 mm to 30 mm.
Coastal areas remained dry. Overall, the north-east experienced heavy early seasonal rains, and above-average rainfall was observed across most of the country, with pockets of normal rainfall and below-normal rainfall limited mainly to the extreme western parts.
On a seasonal scale from October to November, most regions recorded above-normal rainfall, with near-normal conditions in a few areas, while the south and west remained distinctly dry.
Mercury rises and falls
Temperature patterns for November showed the highest monthly averages in the central north and south-eastern regions, ranging between 26.5°C and 28.3°C.
The lowest averages were recorded along the coastal belt. Parts of the north-east, central east and central coast experienced below-average temperatures, with Sachinga and Katima Mulilo recording anomalies of -2.1°C.
For January to March 2026, above-normal temperatures are more likely across most parts of the country, particularly in the south and west, while central and northern regions are expected to experience near-normal temperatures. The likelihood of cooler-than-normal conditions is generally low.
