South Africa's pork and poultry sectors are contending with overlapping biosecurity crises, volatile international supply chains and shifting consumer behaviour, pushing prices higher across both categories, according to the Absa AgriBusiness Agritrends Autumn 2026 report.
No Vaccine, No Relief for Pig Farmers
Biosecurity moved to the centre of pork market dynamics in 2026, with both foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and African swine fever (ASF) causing major supply disruptions, according to the Absa Agritrends report. Unlike cattle, there is currently no
approved FMD vaccine for pigs in South Africa. Outbreak management therefore relies entirely on quarantines, movement controls and controlled slaughter at designated abattoirs, a blunt set of tools that has created significant value-chain disruptions.
These disruptions, combined with consumers continuing to shift toward more affordable protein options, supported strong price momentum, with pork prices reaching multiyear highs in 2026. The Absa Agritrends report describes pork producers as facing heightened strain amid the overlapping FMD and ASF outbreaks.
Pork price dynamics have been closely tied to the interaction of supply, consumer demand and the relative pricing of competing proteins. Prices traded largely sideways during 2024, as higher slaughter numbers were countered by improved demand conditions. More recently, disease-related disruptions across the broader livestock industry created a firmer undertone as supply came under pressure.
The report notes that cross-price signals from Class C beef and poultry have continued to shape the broader trend, with changes in relative prices within the meat complex influencing consumption patterns across all proteins. As elevated beef and poultry prices pushed consumers to seek alternatives, spill-over price support flowed through to pork.
Pork Prices Expected to Stay Firm
Looking ahead, the Absa Agritrends report expects supply disruptions from ASF and FMD outbreaks to continue providing price support for pork through the remainder of 2026. However, it notes that industry efforts toward smoother movement protocols and additional designated abattoirs could limit further upside.
The potential arrival of an approved pork FMD vaccine is also cited as a development that could alleviate supply pressure. At the same time, increasing consumer demand for pork, driven by its relative affordability compared to other meat products, is expected to provide ongoing price support.
Absa AgriBusiness forecasts baconer prices at R34.42/kg in 2026 and R35.56/kg in 2027, compared to R34.08/kg in 2025. Porker prices are forecast at R32.70/kg in 2026, rising to R37.47/kg in 2027, compared to R34.80/kg in 2025.
Poultry Still Recovering from 2023 HPAI Shock
South Africa's poultry industry entered 2026 in a position of gradual recovery but remains highly exposed to biosecurity risks, international market volatility and an uneven consumer environment, according to the Absa Agritrends report.
The sector continues to operate under the shadow of the severe 2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak, which created deep structural and supply disruptions. Because poultry is South Africa's primary and most affordable protein source, biosecurity-related disruptions translate swiftly into price spikes.
The sector's large, stable demand base means any sudden supply contraction leads to notable price increases. The report points to South Africa's import dependency as a key structural vulnerability, with the country importing approximately 20% of its domestic broiler meat requirements, making international market conditions a critical determinant of local pricing.
Brazil's HPAI Outbreak Hits SA Shelves
This exposure became evident in 2025 when Brazil, South Africa's primary supplier of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), reported its first ever HPAI outbreak. MDM is a key input in the production of affordable processed meat products such as polony, viennas and sausages, making it a critical component of South Africa's food system.
The outbreak prompted temporary trade suspensions and contributed to noticeable price increases in the local market. Although Brazil successfully contained the outbreak and exports later resumed, poultry prices remained elevated.
The Absa Agritrends report attributes this persistence to both the lagged effects of earlier supply disruptions and the broader biosecurity uncertainty facing South Africa's livestock sector, where recurring disease events have kept pricing conditions firm.
Feed Costs Fall, but Risks Linger
On the outlook, the Absa Agritrends report expects broiler output to expand moderately in 2026, supported by a significantly improved feed-cost environment. Softer global and local maize and soybean prices, driven by consecutive strong harvests and ample global stocks, are cited as translating into more favourable input costs for poultry producers.
The relative affordability of poultry, particularly against the backdrop of elevated red meat prices and increasingly price-sensitive consumers, is expected to continue shifting protein consumption toward lower-cost options and sustain strong poultry demand.
Local poultry prices are expected to soften slightly but remain elevated relative to pre-HPAI levels, further supported by a stronger rand and improved supply conditions. However, the report cautions that HPAI outbreaks remain highly seasonal and globally disruptive. Any shock affecting key global players such as Brazil or South Africa would tighten supply and push prices higher.
Absa AgriBusiness forecasts fresh whole bird prices at R40.96/kg in 2026 and R41.62/kg in 2027, compared to R39.80/kg in 2025. Frozen whole bird prices are forecast at R34.88/kg in 2026 and R35.58/kg in 2027.
All data and forecasts are sourced from the Absa AgriBusiness Agritrends Autumn 2026 report, published April 2026.
