Africa could face a season of punishing heat, drought, flooding and disrupted rainfall as an unusually powerful El Niño strengthens in the Pacific Ocean.
The latest outlook from the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives the developing event a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026/27. It puts the probability of an event exceeding the strength of any El Niño recorded since 1950 at 69% between October and December.
For Africa, the effects are unlikely to be uniform. Southern Africa faces a heightened risk of drought and extreme heat, while parts of East Africa could experience above-normal rainfall and flooding.
Dr Henno Havenga, senior lecturer in climatology at North-West University’s School of Geo- and Spatial Sciences, says “super El Niño” is widely used but is not a formal scientific classification.
“It describes an exceptionally strong El Niño event,” he says. “El Niño develops when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm, and the atmospheric circulation above it changes. These changes can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific through what we call teleconnections.”
However, a very strong El Niño does not mean every region will experience extreme conditions.
“El Niño shifts the odds, but it does not dictate the weather from one district to the next,” Havenga says. “Weather variability still plays a major role.”
For much of Southern Africa, the risks include reduced rainfall, drought and unusually high temperatures. Heat can compound the damage by increasing evaporation and water demand from crops, livestock and people as supplies decline.
In parts of East Africa, excessive rainfall could instead bring flooding, damage to roads and bridges, contaminated water supplies and displacement.
Even within the same country, rain may arrive too late, fall in the wrong places or come in short, destructive bursts rather than the well-distributed rainfall needed by crops.
“The timing, distribution and intensity of rainfall can either amplify or offset the typical El Niño signal at a local level,” Havenga says.
A threat to fields, taps and household budgets
Agriculture is among the sectors most exposed, but the effects could extend across economies and household budgets. Poor harvests can reduce food availability, weaken rural incomes and push prices higher.
International trade can help compensate for local crop failures, but countries remain exposed to global commodity prices, exchange rates, transport costs and supply-chain disruptions.
The risks are particularly acute for small-scale and subsistence farmers.
“A commercial producer may have access to insurance, financing, irrigation or alternative markets,” Havenga says. “A small-scale or subsistence farmer may lose both the food needed by the household and the produce normally sold to generate an income.”
Water security is another concern. Hot, dry conditions increase demand while reducing supplies in rivers, dams and boreholes.
Havenga says governments and municipalities should reduce water losses before conditions worsen.
“Reducing leaks and unnecessary losses from existing water infrastructure is one of the most practical interventions available to us,” he says. “At the same time, all users should be encouraged to use water sparingly as a general rule.”
Preparing before the crisis
An intense El Niño could also put pressure on health services, energy systems and ecosystems.
Extreme heat can threaten outdoor workers, older people and children, while drought can affect drinking water, sanitation and nutrition. Flooding can contaminate water sources and increase disease risks.
Hydropower-dependent countries could face lower electricity generation if rainfall declines and reservoirs fall, while higher temperatures may increase demand for cooling.
Drought can also reduce vegetation growth, shrink wetlands and rivers, increase wildfire risks and leave wildlife competing for scarce food and water.
Poorer communities are likely to be particularly vulnerable because they often have fewer financial and other resources with which to recover.
Havenga says farmers should review planting plans, crop varieties, water use, production targets and expenditure in response to the increased risk. Governments and municipalities should repair water infrastructure, prepare food-security programmes and ensure disaster-response systems can be activated quickly.
“Drought is a slow-onset hazard,” he says. “At first, we might not feel its effects, but it develops gradually, and that slow progression can catch us off guard.”
“The advantage we have is that advance warning systems have allowed us to talk about this event since May,” Havenga says. “We should use that warning to reduce our exposure and prepare for the possibility of a difficult season, rather than waiting until the drought is already established.”
